オバマ大統領の支持率が急速に低下しています。ギャロップ調査では１年間に20ポイント以上下落、これは同調査では過去最高の下げ率です。「チェンジ」をスローガンに誕生した政権ですが、必ずしもワシントンに変化の旋風を巻き起こしているとはいえませ。むしろ、オバマ大統領の指導力の欠如と、レトリック優先が目立ち、オバマ熱も急速に冷えています。まだ先の話ですが、2012年の大統領選挙では苦戦を強いられそうです。何が問題なのか、分析してみました。この記事は「週刊東洋経済」に掲載された記事の本原稿です。 (more…)

年初からの円ドル相場の動向は完全にドル金利の予想と連動した動きを示しています。金利動向の背景には、景気回復に対する見通しの変化があります。良い経済指標がでると、為替市場では、政策金利を決定するＦＯＭＣ（連邦公開市場委員会）が利上げに踏み切るのではないかとの予想からドルが買われ、円が売られ、逆に悪い経済指標がでると、当分、利上げはないとの観測が強まり、今度はドルが売られ、円が買われるということが繰り返されてきています。対ユーロ相場は、ＥＵ諸国の財政赤字問題が相場動向を決める最大の要因になっています。その意味では、非常に簡単な図式で年初来の相場は動いてきていると言えます。 (more…)

アメリカの金融規制の動向が注目を浴びています。１月21日、オバマ大統領は金融規制に関する発表を行いました。その中で、大統領は「経済回復諮問委員会」のメンバー二人と生産的な会合を行ったと断った上で、新たな金融規制を提案しました。二人の委員とは、ポール・ボルカー元ＦＲＢ（連邦準備制度理事会）議長とビル・ドナルドソン元ＳＥＣ（証券取引委員会）委員長です。この記者会見で発表した規制案は、元もとボルカー元議長が主張していたものです。そのため、オバマ大統領が新たに発表した案は「ボルカー・ルール」と呼ばれています。今回はアメリカの金融規制法案の審議状況と法案の内容を紹介します。最近のメディアの焦点は「ボルカー・ルール」に当てられていますが、金融法案は昨年の春に財務省案が提案され、議会で審議が続いていました。そして、昨年12月11日に下院案が可決され、同法案は上院に回されています。｢ボルカー・ルール｣は必ずしも銀行規制全体をカバーしているわけではありません。金融規制全体を理解するには、議会で審議されている法案を見てみる必要があります。以下では、まずオバマ大統領の金融規制に関する基本的な考えを紹介します。そして下院で成立した金融規制法案の内容を紹介し、さらに「ボルカー・ルール」の内容を説明することにします。最後に金融法案の行方と「ボルカー・ルール」の内容を検討してみます。 (more…)

オバマ大統領の支持率の低下に歩調を合わせるように保守主義者の反攻が始まっています。今まで何度か保守主義運動の展開がありましたが、今回はティーパーティと呼ばれる草の根運動が中心になっています。２月６日からナッシュビルでティーパーティ全国大会が開催され、保守主義者は気勢をあげています。アメリカの保守主義運動については私の『アメリカ保守主義革命』に詳しく書かれています。ただ、このままティーパーティ運動が勢いを増すかどうか、まだ不確定です。ただ１１月の中間選挙を控え、同運動の動向は目が離せません。ここにアップした原稿は『週刊東洋経済』に寄稿したものです。what tramadol hcl-aceta spend orlistat.
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