ギリシャの財政危機で世界各国の財政問題に注目が集まっています。ギリシャはＥＵとＩＭＦの支援で当面の流動性危機は回避しましたが、どこまで国内経済の立て直しができるのかが、今後の焦点になっています。こうした中で、「アメリカも財政危機」の例外ではないという指摘も行われています。今回は、アメリカの財政危機について書いてみます。 (続きを読む…)

この３ヶ月、記事をアップできませんでした。大学教授としての新しい生活が始まったので、相変わらず多忙な生活が続き、ついつい時間が経ってしまいました。少し体勢を立て直して、またアップを始めるつもりです。私の関心項目のひとつにアメリカの最高裁判所があります。最高裁に関する資料は随分溜まりましたが、なかなか書くチャンスがありませんでした。今回、最高裁人事に絡んで、書いてみました。最高裁はアメリカの最大の聖域です。かつて映画で「ペリカン文書」というのがありましたが、それは最高裁の人事を巡る内容でした。今後も折に触れて最高裁に関して書くつもりです。 (続きを読む…)

ギリシャの財政危機に端を発したユーロ危機も当面の山は越えたようです。ギリシャ政府は自力で50億ユーロの国債を発行し、財政赤字削減策を打ち出しました。厳しい緊縮策は国内で強い反発を招いていますが、金融市場や為替市場は落ち着きを取り戻し、ユーロ相場も回復に向かっています。この数ヶ月のユーロ相場の動きを見てみると、対ドルでは、２月25日に１ユーロ＝1.3489ドルの安値を付け、緩やかに上昇に転じています。3月17日の相場は１ユーロ＝1.3756ドルです。対円相場でみると、2月25日に１ユーロ＝120円66銭の安値を付けた後、反転しています。3月17日の相場は、１ユーロ＝124円43銭です。ちなみに過去120日のユーロの対ドル相場の最高値は、昨年の12月3日の１ユーロ＝1.512ドルでした。対円相場では、10月26日の１ユーロ＝138円09銭でした。 (続きを読む…)

アメリカにとって国民皆保険制度は重要な課題でした。最初に国民皆保険制度を訴えたのは進歩党（Progressive Party)から大統領選挙に立候補したセオドーア・ルーズベルトでした。その後、フランクリン・ルーズベルト大統領もニューディール政策の一環として国民皆保険制度の確立を目指しましたが、実現に至りませんでした。ジョンソン大統領の時に高齢者と低所得者を対象にするメディケアとメディケイドが導入されましたが、アメリカの医療保険は基本的に個人加入か企業が提供するものでした。その結果、膨大な数の無保険者が存在し、医療サービスも保険料で決まるなど所得による大きな差が存在しました。そうした民主党の長年の念願が実現したのです。それは大きな前進ではありますが、同時にまだ多くの問題が残されています。当面の問題は、同制度を巡る民主党と共和党の対立激化で、11月の中間選挙の大きなテーマになりそうです。 (続きを読む…)

オバマ大統領の支持率が急速に低下しています。ギャロップ調査では１年間に20ポイント以上下落、これは同調査では過去最高の下げ率です。「チェンジ」をスローガンに誕生した政権ですが、必ずしもワシントンに変化の旋風を巻き起こしているとはいえませ。むしろ、オバマ大統領の指導力の欠如と、レトリック優先が目立ち、オバマ熱も急速に冷えています。まだ先の話ですが、2012年の大統領選挙では苦戦を強いられそうです。何が問題なのか、分析してみました。この記事は「週刊東洋経済」に掲載された記事の本原稿です。required. when cat dog internet chlorhydrate tramadol Xenical
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アメリカの金融規制の動向が注目を浴びています。１月21日、オバマ大統領は金融規制に関する発表を行いました。その中で、大統領は「経済回復諮問委員会」のメンバー二人と生産的な会合を行ったと断った上で、新たな金融規制を提案しました。二人の委員とは、ポール・ボルカー元ＦＲＢ（連邦準備制度理事会）議長とビル・ドナルドソン元ＳＥＣ（証券取引委員会）委員長です。この記者会見で発表した規制案は、元もとボルカー元議長が主張していたものです。そのため、オバマ大統領が新たに発表した案は「ボルカー・ルール」と呼ばれています。今回はアメリカの金融規制法案の審議状況と法案の内容を紹介します。最近のメディアの焦点は「ボルカー・ルール」に当てられていますが、金融法案は昨年の春に財務省案が提案され、議会で審議が続いていました。そして、昨年12月11日に下院案が可決され、同法案は上院に回されています。｢ボルカー・ルール｣は必ずしも銀行規制全体をカバーしているわけではありません。金融規制全体を理解するには、議会で審議されている法案を見てみる必要があります。以下では、まずオバマ大統領の金融規制に関する基本的な考えを紹介します。そして下院で成立した金融規制法案の内容を紹介し、さらに「ボルカー・ルール」の内容を説明することにします。最後に金融法案の行方と「ボルカー・ルール」の内容を検討してみます。 (続きを読む…)

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(続きを読む…)

アメリカの景気は急速に回復に向かっています。ただ経済の数字ほど、回復は堅調ではなく、政府の刺激策がなければ景気の”二番底”がありうるとの見方も依然としてあります。しかも景気は回復に向かっているとはいえ、失業率は10％台に留まっています。2010年中は10％台の失業率は続くと予想されている。深刻な不況の影響はまだ色濃く残っており、厳しさには変わりはありません。今回は金融危機後、アメリカ人の生活や生活意識がどう変わったかに焦点を当てました。この記事は昨年の『中央公論』11月号に寄稿したものです。アメリカ社会の変化を描写したつもりです。 (続きを読む…)

この記事は１月25日に書いたものです。前の記事は１月７日に書きました。その時点ではアメリカ経済の回復は堅調であると書きました。それをベースに相場の見通しを書いたのですが、１月８日に発表された雇用統計は予想に反してあまり良い内容ではありませんでした。その他の要因も加わり、その後、ドルが売られる展開となりました。ここでは、そうした要因を説明しました。同時に、前回にも触れた”キャリートレード”についても解説しました。蛇足ですが、私は大学を卒業して外国為替専門銀行の東京銀行（現在の三菱東京ＵＦＪ銀行）に就職し、最初の業務は輸出手形の買取業務でした。経済社会での最初の経験が為替相場に関するものでした。その時の経験が、記者になっても随分助けになりました。 (続きを読む…)