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2010/3/2 Tuesday

オバマ大統領の2年目の試練:急速に支持喪失、一期限りの大統領説も

Filed under: - nakaoka @ 22:52

オバマ大統領の支持率が急速に低下しています。ギャロップ調査では1年間に20ポイント以上下落、これは同調査では過去最高の下げ率です。「チェンジ」をスローガンに誕生した政権ですが、必ずしもワシントンに変化の旋風を巻き起こしているとはいえませ。むしろ、オバマ大統領の指導力の欠如と、レトリック優先が目立ち、オバマ熱も急速に冷えています。まだ先の話ですが、2012年の大統領選挙では苦戦を強いられそうです。何が問題なのか、分析してみました。この記事は「週刊東洋経済」に掲載された記事の本原稿です。 (more…)

2010/2/27 Saturday

FRB(連邦準備制度理事会)はいつ利上げに踏み切るか:公定歩合引き上げの意味

Filed under: - nakaoka @ 12:16

年初からの円ドル相場の動向は完全にドル金利の予想と連動した動きを示しています。金利動向の背景には、景気回復に対する見通しの変化があります。良い経済指標がでると、為替市場では、政策金利を決定するFOMC(連邦公開市場委員会)が利上げに踏み切るのではないかとの予想からドルが買われ、円が売られ、逆に悪い経済指標がでると、当分、利上げはないとの観測が強まり、今度はドルが売られ、円が買われるということが繰り返されてきています。対ユーロ相場は、EU諸国の財政赤字問題が相場動向を決める最大の要因になっています。その意味では、非常に簡単な図式で年初来の相場は動いてきていると言えます。 (more…)

2010/2/18 Thursday

アメリカの金融規制の現状:「ボルカー・ルール」とは何か

Filed under: - nakaoka @ 16:33

アメリカの金融規制の動向が注目を浴びています。1月21日、オバマ大統領は金融規制に関する発表を行いました。その中で、大統領は「経済回復諮問委員会」のメンバー二人と生産的な会合を行ったと断った上で、新たな金融規制を提案しました。二人の委員とは、ポール・ボルカー元FRB(連邦準備制度理事会)議長とビル・ドナルドソン元SEC(証券取引委員会)委員長です。この記者会見で発表した規制案は、元もとボルカー元議長が主張していたものです。そのため、オバマ大統領が新たに発表した案は「ボルカー・ルール」と呼ばれています。今回はアメリカの金融規制法案の審議状況と法案の内容を紹介します。最近のメディアの焦点は「ボルカー・ルール」に当てられていますが、金融法案は昨年の春に財務省案が提案され、議会で審議が続いていました。そして、昨年12月11日に下院案が可決され、同法案は上院に回されています。「ボルカー・ルール」は必ずしも銀行規制全体をカバーしているわけではありません。金融規制全体を理解するには、議会で審議されている法案を見てみる必要があります。以下では、まずオバマ大統領の金融規制に関する基本的な考えを紹介します。そして下院で成立した金融規制法案の内容を紹介し、さらに「ボルカー・ルール」の内容を説明することにします。最後に金融法案の行方と「ボルカー・ルール」の内容を検討してみます。 (more…)

2010/2/7 Sunday

始まった保守主義者の反攻:ティーバーティ運動の背後にあるもの

Filed under: - nakaoka @ 21:41

オバマ大統領の支持率の低下に歩調を合わせるように保守主義者の反攻が始まっています。今まで何度か保守主義運動の展開がありましたが、今回はティーパーティと呼ばれる草の根運動が中心になっています。2月6日からナッシュビルでティーパーティ全国大会が開催され、保守主義者は気勢をあげています。アメリカの保守主義運動については私の『アメリカ保守主義革命』に詳しく書かれています。ただ、このままティーパーティ運動が勢いを増すかどうか、まだ不確定です。ただ11月の中間選挙を控え、同運動の動向は目が離せません。ここにアップした原稿は『週刊東洋経済』に寄稿したものです。what tramadol hcl-aceta spend orlistat.
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2010/1/31 Sunday

金融危機でアメリカ人の生活はどう変わったか:消えたアメリカン・ドリーム

Filed under: - nakaoka @ 11:53

アメリカの景気は急速に回復に向かっています。ただ経済の数字ほど、回復は堅調ではなく、政府の刺激策がなければ景気の”二番底”がありうるとの見方も依然としてあります。しかも景気は回復に向かっているとはいえ、失業率は10%台に留まっています。2010年中は10%台の失業率は続くと予想されている。深刻な不況の影響はまだ色濃く残っており、厳しさには変わりはありません。今回は金融危機後、アメリカ人の生活や生活意識がどう変わったかに焦点を当てました。この記事は昨年の『中央公論』11月号に寄稿したものです。アメリカ社会の変化を描写したつもりです。 (more…)